“Seoul Drift”: Political crisis in South Korea threatens renewed conflict with the North

RU

A night of fear

Dec. 3, 2024, began as an ordinary day for South Koreans. Nothing seemed out of the ordinary until late that evening. At 10:40 p.m., President Yoon Suk Yeol delivered an address to the nation that would alter the course of his country’s history. At first, the speech appeared routine. President Yoon once again criticized the leftist opposition, something he and his administration had been doing since his inauguration in the spring of 2022.

The current political setup in South Korea is not uncommon for presidential republics: legislative and executive powers are held by opposing political forces. President Yoon's conservative People Power Party holds only 108 of the 300 seats in the National Assembly, the country's unicameral parliament, while the opposition Democratic Party and other left-leaning forces command a majority. This has left the president unable to pass legislation without lengthy negotiations and compromises. Conversely, opposition bills have repeatedly faced presidential vetoes, which require 200 votes to override — a threshold that the opposition and its 192 seats falls short of.

At the beginning of December, the right and left factions failed to agree on the country’s 2025 budget, and it seemed that President Yoon’s speech would focus on this issue. However, to the shock of most South Koreans, the president announced toward the end of his address that he intended to resolve the crisis through force. Here is what Yoon declared:

“Dear citizens, I hereby proclaim the imposition of a state of emergency to protect the free Republic of Korea from the threat posed by the communist forces of North Korea, to eliminate the shameless anti-state elements that encroach on the freedom and happiness of our people, and to safeguard the very constitutional order founded on the principle of liberty.

Through this measure — the declaration of a state of emergency — I will save the free Republic of Korea from plunging into the abyss of destruction and rebuild it anew. To this end, I will inevitably eradicate the anti-state forces — the core of those whose criminal activities are aimed at the downfall of the state. This is an unavoidable step to ensure the freedom and safety of citizens from anti-state forces, to preserve the continued existence of the nation, and to pass on to future generations a country as it is meant to be.

I will do my utmost to swiftly eliminate the anti-state forces and restore our country to its normal condition. The declaration of a state of emergency may cause some inconvenience to the good citizens who believe in and support the values of the Constitution of the free Republic of Korea. I will strive to minimize these inconveniences.

These measures are essential to ensure that the Republic of Korea remains free. Our foreign policy, rooted in responsibility and contribution to the international community, remains unchanged. As president, I appeal to you, the citizens. I place my faith in you and will dedicate all my efforts to protect the free Republic of Korea. Please trust me. Thank you.”

Before the triumph of democracy in South Korea in 1987, the declaration of a state of emergency was a favored tool of the country’s military dictators. It was typically used either immediately after seizing power or to extend their authority. For this reason, the current South Korean Constitution and the Emergency Act include provisions specifically designed to prevent this mechanism from being exploited in an attempted power grab. According to the Constitution, when declaring a state of emergency, the president must immediately notify the National Assembly. If the Assembly, by a simple majority, demands its cancellation, the president is required to comply without delay and issue a formal statement about the revocation. The law further mandates that the declaration of emergency must be approved by the cabinet and explicitly prohibits the arrest of members of parliament during the state of emergency, except in cases where they are caught in a criminal act.

President Yoon chose to simply ignore the entire system of checks and balances. As later became known, the majority of the cabinet did not support his decision. Nevertheless, Yoon proceeded with his plan. He appointed General Park An Soo, the Army Chief of Staff, as the commander responsible for implementing the state of emergency.

It can be assumed that the reason Yoon selected Park over a higher ranking option — Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kim Myung Soo, for example — was General Park's personal loyalty. At the time of Yoon's inauguration in May 2022, Park was a mere major general. The two additional stars on his shoulders were granted by the current president.

General Park fulfilled Yoon Suk Yeol's expectations. The first directive he issued — and, it turned out, the only one — was ominous in tone:

Directive No. 1 of the Emergency Command

To safeguard the liberal democracy of the Republic of Korea from the threat of overthrow by anti-state forces operating within the free Republic of Korea, and to ensure the security of its people, the following measures are enacted across the entire territory of the Republic of Korea effective from 11:00 PM on December 3, 2024:

The activities of the National Assembly, local legislative bodies, and political parties are prohibited. All political activities, including political associations, gatherings, and demonstrations, are banned.

Activities denying or threatening to overthrow the liberal-democratic order of the Republic of Korea, as well as the dissemination of fake news, manipulation of public opinion, and false appeals, are strictly forbidden.

All media outlets and publishers are placed under the control of the Emergency Command.

Strikes, sabotage, assemblies, and other actions contributing to societal disorder are prohibited.

All doctors, including interns, and other medical personnel participating in strikes or having left medical facilities, must return to their professional duties within 48 hours and perform their work in good faith. Noncompliance will result in penalties under emergency laws.

Ordinary law-abiding citizens unaffiliated with anti-state forces or groups seeking to overthrow the government will experience minimal inconvenience in their daily lives.

Individuals violating the aforementioned provisions may be arrested, detained, or subjected to search without a warrant in accordance with Article 9 (Special Powers of the Emergency Command Chief) of the Republic of Korea's Emergency Act and penalized under Article 14 (Prohibitive Measures) of the same act.

December 3, 2024 (Tuesday)

Chief of the Emergency Command,

General Park An Soo

The very first provision of this directive blatantly violated existing laws, as a state of emergency cannot be used to suspend the activities of parliament. However, this was precisely Yoon's objective. Following the president's orders, the building was cordoned off by police, and helicopters carrying special forces were dispatched toward the National Assembly.

As for the censorship declared by General Park, it remained purely theoretical. Not a single media outlet sought guidance from the general. While the president attempted to establish a dictatorship, television networks and newspapers gave voice to opposition representatives and broadcasted the unfolding events live. The right-wing press, in particular, demonstrated commendable integrity, immediately siding with the rule of law and refraining from publishing any material in support of Yoon's actions.

The deputies also rushed to the National Assembly building to support the demand for President Yoon to lift the state of emergency. Initially, the police cordon tried to stop them. During the scuffle, one opposition member broke his pinky. But soon the parliamentarians sought instructions from the head of the Seoul police, Kim Bong-sik, who hesitated before ultimately giving the order to let the deputies through.

Around the same time, special forces units arrived at the Parliament. According to their subsequent accounts, they were only informed of their mission upon arrival. Expecting to be sent to confront North Koreans, the soldiers were shocked to learn they were tasked with storming their own parliament building.

As a result, the special forces did everything they could to quietly sabotage the order — they moved slowly, attempted to enter through a locked window that they deliberately pried open at a sluggish pace, and then reluctantly climbed through the frame into the building.

Meanwhile, a quorum was gathered in parliament. It immediately put forward for a vote Resolution No. 2206197, titled “Demand for the Lifting of the State of Emergency.” The proceedings were rushed, with the last (190th) deputy registering in the system just seconds before the vote began. Once the proceedings concluded, the Speaker of Parliament, Woo Won-shik, announced the result: “Present — 190. Of them, 190 votes in favor. The resolution is carried.” Of the 190 deputies who voted to lift the state of emergency, 18 were members of President Yoon’s ruling party.

Technically speaking, the state of emergency remained in effect after the vote, as a new decision from President Yoon was required to revoke it. However, the soldiers did not wait for orders from the Commander-in-Chief. They formed a single line at the revolving door leading out of parliament and, pressing the button one by one, exited the legislative assembly. It was a deeply humiliating scene for the would-be dictator: a president ignored by his own special forces.

The morning of a new day

Although the Constitution of South Korea requires the president to immediately lift the state of emergency following a parliamentary demand, it took President Yoon a few more hours to do so. It seems that the head of state was weighing different courses of action. Only closer to 5 a.m. did Yoon make a brief address, announcing that, in accordance with the parliamentary demand, the state of emergency would be lifted. At the same time, the president continued, the opposition should refrain from any talk of impeachment and “cheating with legislation and the budget.”

When the darkest night in South Korea’s recent history came to an end, the nation faced the question of what would happen next. From the opposition's point of view, the answer was clear: the president, who had attempted to establish a dictatorship, should be immediately removed from office and put on trial. Public sentiment was similar: 73.6% supported impeachment of President Yoon, and 69.5% of those surveyed believed the president was guilty of conspiring to overthrow the constitutional order. Support for impeachment gained a majority among all social groups — including Yoon’s core constituencies of conservatives and the elderly.

After the fact, domestic media began recalling that rumors of a potential state of emergency had been circulating prior to Yoon’s declaration. For instance, in September 2024, an opposition deputy had asked the then-defense minister about it. At the time, the minister dismissed the question, mocking the deputy and declaring he would not respond to “meaningless and foolish” inquiries. In December, however, this largely forgotten exchange now seemed to take on an entirely different significance.

The 108 parliamentarians from Yoon’s faction found themselves in a difficult position. After the president’s failed coup, it was revealed that Yoon had intended to arrest not only opposition members, but also those in his own party who were deemed insufficiently loyal — including chairman Han Dong-hoon. However, supporting impeachment would bring the case before the Constitutional Court, and given the numerous laws Yoon had violated, it was likely the court would rule in favor of his removal from office. This would inevitably lead to early presidential elections, held within two months of the Court’s decision.

At this point, the ruling party found itself paralyzed by indecision. Elections during a political crisis caused by a right-wing president would likely result in a victory for the left. The opposition's candidate would almost certainly be its leader, Lee Jae-myung — the last person the right would want to see as president.

The controversial opposition leader

Lee Jae-myung is arguably the most left-wing of all mainstream South Korean politicians of the democratic era. He is clearly sympathetic to North Korea. For example, in January 2024, while calling for the de-escalation of inter-Korean relations, Lee stated: “We must do everything we can to ensure that the efforts of our North Korea, Kim Jong Il, and President Kim Il-sung are not desecrated or defamed.” He has also spoken highly of the social policies of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro.

Lee Jae-myung is dogged by a long trail of scandals: drunk driving, campaigning in unauthorized locations, rude remarks to a gay student who urged him to legalize same-sex relationships, attempts to deny that North Korea is directly responsible for starting the Korean War, accusations made on Feb. 25, 2022 against President Zelensky for “provoking” the Russian invasion, plagiarism of his master's thesis, and much more.

From the right-wing perspective, Lee is considered a dangerous populist. If he were to assume the presidency, they argue, the country would face a crisis as a result of his economic experiments, as Lee has previously called for actively borrowing money abroad, dissolving large corporations, and redistributing land to the people. The cornerstone of South Korea's foreign policy — its alliance with the United States — would also be put in jeopardy. As a result, Yoon-friendly lawmakers considering a vote for impeachment face a dilemma characterized by the phrase “escaping from the fox, only to run into the tiger.” Discussions are underway as to whether democratic principles ought to trump political expediency. Judging by the behavior of party chairman Han Dong-hoon, behind closed doors this battle was quite intense.

On Dec. 4, the day after Yoon’s martial law declaration, chairman Han stated that the president should be removed. On Dec. 5, he waffled, declaring that the ruling party, “People Power,” should not allow for impeachment. On Dec. 6, Han again said that Yoon should be removed from office. The situation was set to be resolved by a vote on Saturday, Dec. 7.

The day of dishonor

Following Japan’s attack on the U.S. naval base at Pearl Harbor, Franklin Delano Roosevelt characterized Dec. 7, 1941 as “a date which will live in infamy.” Dec. 7, 2024 became such a day for South Korea as well. When parliament began its consideration of the impeachment issue, it quickly became clear that in the battle between principles and pragmatism, pragmatism had won. The leadership of the ruling party instructed its deputies to leave the chamber.

The impeachment vote was secret, meaning the party’s leadership could not control the behavior of its members were they to participate. However, by removing the deputies from the hall, it was possible to ensure that the required 200 votes would not be reached, as at least 8 deputies from the ruling “People Power” party would have needed to vote in favor of impeachment in order for the motion to be approved.

The leader of the opposition faction, Park Chan-dae, delivered a heartfelt speech to his colleagues from “People Power”:

“Right now, the whole world is watching us, watching the Republic of Korea. All citizens are watching how parliament will behave. The decision we make today will determine the fate of the Republic of Korea. I ask you: confirm that democracy in the Republic of Korea is alive! That the sovereignty of the Korean people is inviolable! Vote for impeachment! Members of 'People Power,' I call on you! Return. Return to your seats. Vote for the impeachment of the leader of the rebellion — Yoon Suk-yeol! For democracy! For the good of the people! For our Republic of Korea to overcome this crisis!”

Looking at the empty seats, Park Chan-dae began to name all the deputies from the ruling party: “Deputy Kang Dae-sik! Deputy Kang Myung-gu! Deputy Kang Min-guk...” Park singled out the eighteen right-wing lawmakers who had supported the rule of law on the night of Yoon’s fateful declaration: “Deputy Kwak Kyu-taek! You were with us when we voted to lift the state of emergency! Come back!”

Opposition deputies repeated the call of their leader, but the response was silence until Park Chan-dae reached the middle of the list: “Deputy Ahn Cheol-su!” proclaimed the opposition leader before a reply of “I’m here!” came from the hall — Ahn was the only deputy from “People Power” who defied the party line and remained in the chamber to vote. “Thank you!” said Park Chan-dae, who after a brief pause continued to appeal to the consciences of the remaining right-wing deputies.

The heartfelt speech of the faction leader was not made entirely in vain. Right-wing deputy Kim Ye-ji returned to the chamber and voted for impeachment. She was followed by Kim Sang-uk. Together with the 192 votes from the opposition, this made 195. Five more votes were needed for impeachment. When it became clear that no one else would come, speaker Woo Won-sik called for a formal vote count and announced the result: “195 votes were cast. This number is less than two-thirds of the total number of National Assembly members. Therefore, the vote on this matter” — here the speaker choked up and took a five-second pause — ”I declare the vote invalid.”

Evenings of intrigue

Following the impeachment failure, South Korea entered a new phase of crisis and uncertainty. President Yoon remains in power. In his only public statement after the lifting of the state of emergency, he pledged not to impose such a measure again. Despite this, three-quarters of the population still supports impeachment, and Yoon’s approval rating has plummeted to 13%. The opposition has brought the impeachment issue to a parliamentary vote for the second time and promised to continue doing so weekly until it is passed.

Han Dong-hoon and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo suggested that the best course of action is a “gradual resignation,” in which the president would effectively transfer his powers to the prime minister and the ruling party. The opposition, predictably, objected, arguing that such a “dual leadership” arrangement is not outlined in the law and that the crisis should be resolved constitutionally — i.e. through impeachment.

Rounds of three-way talks — between the president, ruling party lawmakers, and the opposition — are moving forward. The public will also likely voice its opinion through protests. However, given that the ruling party chose to block impeachment despite popular support for the measure, it seems the elites are prioritizing their own interests over public opinion.

Under the current circumstances, a range of potential developments are possible.

• The opposition could manage to convince five more lawmakers from the ruling party to join their side, leading impeachment to pass. President Yoon would almost certainly be removed from office by the Constitutional Court, and the ruling party would face the difficult challenge of competing with Lee Jae-myung in snap elections.
• President Yoon could be arrested. His presidential immunity is nearly absolute, but the charges against him — rebellion — do not fall under that protection. Since a president cannot perform his duties from prison, they would transfer to the prime minister. Whether this would trigger snap elections is uncertain, as South Korean legislation has not accounted for such a situation; it is likely that a ruling from the Constitutional Court would be needed to resolve such an impasse.
• The current crisis could drag on for months, with South Korea living under a president who is disregarded by the military while impeachment votes are held weekly in parliament. This would have severe consequences for the country's reputation and economy.
• President Yoon may attempt to provoke a new crisis in order to maintain his grip on power. What the opposition fears most is a provocation involving North Korea. If large-scale conflict breaks out, Yoon could potentially remain in office. While this scenario remains unlikely, the declaration of a state of emergency by the president to seize power also appeared implausible — until it actually happened.

Thus, while the likelihood of a second Korean War remains low, it now appears higher than at any time in the past 30 years — and now, the main threat is no longer emanating from Pyongyang.