Last Monday, Donald Trump promised to announce the good news that the war in Ukraine could be ending any day. However, even before the elections last November, he repeatedly said that he would resolve the conflict within “24 hours” and only recently admitted that these words had been said “in jest.” In the opinion of political analyst Georgy Chizhov, we should not expect an agreement anytime soon. As recent experience has shown, there is simply no room for compromise between Ukraine and Russia.
Who recognizes Crimea as Russian territory?
The main news story over the week of Easter was Reuters’ publication of the alleged U.S. plan for an agreement between Kyiv and Moscow, along with counter-proposals developed by the leaders of Ukraine and several European countries. The most scandalous of the American position was its openness to legally recognize Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. Surely, Crimea must also include the port of Sevastopol, but Trump's associates rarely mention the “city of maritime glory” in public, as the current U.S. administration prefers to ignore such geographical trivia.
“Nobody is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. And this is technically accurate, since Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian land can be effectively legitimized by the U.S. alone — without Kyiv’s input.
“Nobody is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory,” Trump said
What has Ukraine got to do with it, one may ask? The U.S. is free in its sovereign right to recognize any annexations. But only Congress can do this, and Trump clearly understands that today he will not gain votes in support of such an initiative, despite the Republican majority in both chambers. It would be another matter if America's approval of the annexation had been “blessed” by Ukraine itself — but it was not.
The frontline and the red lines
“Ukraine does not recognize the occupation of Crimea as legitimate. There is nothing to talk about; it is outside our Constitution,” Volodymyr Zelensky reacted predictably to the debate, marking one of his main red lines. The origins of these lines are quite obvious, as they stem from the Ukrainian Constitution and public sentiment, which does not allow for prompt amendments to the Constitution.
Kyiv cannot recognize the annexation of any territory (or allow another country to do so), cannot renounce its NATO aspirations (which are also enshrined in the supreme law of the land), and cannot jeopardize its own security by, for example, reducing the size of its armed forces, the number of heavy weapons in its arsenal, and forswearing the potential presence of allied guarantor troops in the country.
Essentially, this is the main difference between European-Ukrainian proposals and American ones. In addition, Ukraine demands specific security guarantees, along with the provision of resources for post-war reconstruction. Kyiv also insists on the return of all illegally displaced children, civilian prisoners, and, in an all-for-all exchange, its prisoners of war. Still, according to diplomatic leaks, a different reason was behind the failure of the talks in London: the refusal of U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to show up.
One provision of the leaked U.S. documents read: “Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved after a complete and unconditional ceasefire.” While willing to accept de facto annexation roughly along the current front line, Kyiv counts on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kharkiv Region and a small section of Mykolaiv Region. In return, Kyiv is ready to withdraw its forces from Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions but is sitting on this concession until the actual cessation of hostilities. This seems logical, if only because otherwise the demarcation line would change every day of the negotiations.
Trump is angry
America's disagreements over the peace plan with both Ukraine and Europe seem less important than Moscow's reluctance to accept any of the proposals. Russia's terms for ending the war, reiterated the other day by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have remained effectively unchanged since 2022: international recognition of the annexation of six Ukrainian regions, Ukraine's non-aligned status, the lifting of sanctions and defreezing of Russian assets, the seemingly forgotten “demilitarization and de-nazification” of Ukraine, and even “overcoming the consequences of the rule of the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv,” which involves repealing several Ukrainian laws.
The other day, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Russia's terms for ending the war
The Kremlin’s position could be the main result of the Trump team's peacemaking efforts. Elevated by the Americans from an aggressor to a high contracting party, Russia is demonstrating a fundamental unwillingness to take any steps towards its opponents — or even towards the talks’ mediators. Instead, a three-day truce is proposed for the anniversary of the victory in World War II, an idea that can only be seen as aimed at ensuring the security of the festivities in Moscow.
Elevated by the Americans from an aggressor to a high contracting party, Russia demonstrates a fundamental unwillingness to take any steps towards its opponents or mediators
Now that the Kremlin's stance has dashed Trump's hope of demonstrating to the American nation any tangible positive result of his first 100 days in office, he finally gave vent to his irritation with the Russian leader: “There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently.” Trump has never used such harsh language toward the Kremlin's master before. There was even speculation from Moscow that “the demonic black forces of Zelensky and Macron poisoned Trump in St. Peter's Basilica” during the presidents' meeting at Pope Francis' funeral.
The May break
Secretary Rubio believes this week will be critical to resolving the conflict in Ukraine. As he told NBC, Washington was reluctant to impose new sanctions against Russia because such a move would “close the door to diplomacy.” Trump himself is willing to give Putin “two weeks or less, well, or a little more” before he decides whether he trusts the Russian leader. The White House has decided to let Moscow celebrate Victory Day as planned, but afterward, it will want constructive responses to its peacekeeping initiatives.
In the NBC interview, Rubio made it clear that the U.S. has “options” for those deemed “responsible for not wanting the peace.” But the White House prefers “not to get to that stage yet.” It is hard to imagine that these “options” would scare Moscow all that much given the three years the Kremlin spent resisting pressure from the previous U.S. administration, and Sergey Lavrov recently announced that Russia’s conditions for peace remain unchanged. However, Putin does not want to break up with Trump for good either. A scenario in which the U.S., rather than any of Russia's traditional allies, is in charge of bringing the aggressor state out of international isolation looks too enticing.
That’s likely why Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov signaled Moscow's readiness to negotiate with Ukraine without any preconditions. Even Zelensky's alleged “illegitimacy” suddenly ceased to be a hindrance — which is not to say it cannot be recalled at the right moment.
Meanwhile, a semantic pause in the negotiations between the 100 days of Trump's presidency and the 80th anniversary of the WWII victory gives Washington time to prepare a new “peace plan.” For Moscow, the interlude provides an opportunity to invent a new way to drag out the talks. The Ukrainian side, on the other hand, has minimal room for political maneuvering even after repairing its relations with Trump, as Kyiv has practically exhausted its space for concessions.